Journal of Oral Science Research

Journal of Oral Science Research ›› 2025, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (2): 101-108.DOI: 10.13701/j.cnki.kqyxyj.2025.02.004

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Clinical Characteristics and Prognostic Analyses of 317 Elderly Patients with Oropharyngeal Cancer: A Single Center Retrospective Study Over 15 Years

SHI Tingting1, LI Chenxi2,3*, GONG Zhongcheng2*, CUI Wenli4, Maimaitituxun·TUERDI1, ZHANG Weina5   

  1. 1. Department of Maxillofacial Trauma and Orthognathic Surgery, School / Hosptital of Stomatology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi 830054, China;
    2. Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Oncology & Surgery, School / Hosptital of Stomatology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Stomatological Research Institute of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830054, China;
    3. Clinical Medicine Postdoctoral Scientific Research Station, Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi 830054, China;
    4. Department of Pathology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi 830054, China;
    5. Department of Otorhinolaryngology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi 830054, China
  • Received:2024-09-26 Online:2025-02-28 Published:2025-02-26

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Abstract: Objective: To construct a nomogram model to perform the disease-specific analysis, based on demographics, clinicopathological data, and overall survival of the elderly patients with oropharyngeal cancer. Methods: A total of 317 patients admitted to Xinjiang Medical University Affiliated First Hospital, between January 2000 and December 2015, were divided into training (n=221) and validation cohorts(n=96) with a ratio of 7∶3. Statistics was performed by R language program. Association and distribution of clinicopathologic variables among two groups were analyzed using Fisher's exact test or Chi-square withBonferroni correction.Cox proportional hazards regressionanalysis was used to assess independent risk factors impacting patients’ prognosis and construct prediction model. Through backward induction and performance evaluation modeling, the identification and calibration efficacy of the definitive predictive model were appraised by receiver operator characteristic curve and calibration curve analysis. Results: Cox analysis revealed that age, race, marital status, grade of tumor differentiation, T and N stage, surgery, radiation, and chemotherapy were independent risk factors (all P<0.005).Based on the probability output by multiple regression model, high-risk and low-risk groups of patients were defined according to probability of 0.5 and survival curves were then plotted. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that the survival rate of low-risk patients (less than 0.5) was significantly higher than that of high-risk patients (greater than 0.5) (all P<0.001). In terms of model’s predictive ability, the area under curve (AUC) of receiver operator characteristic curve in training queue was AUC1-year=0.873, AUC2-year=0.829, and AUC3-year=0.795, respectively; and AUC values in test queue was AUC1-year=0.823, AUC2-year=0.806, and AUC3-year=0.768, respectively,indicating that the model had good discriminative ability.The calibration curves also showed that the overall fitting degree of the model was good, and the predicted probability of the model matched the actual observed results to a high degree. Conclusion: The prediction tool can help clinicians identify at-risk patients and develop personalized treatment plans ahead of time.

Key words: elderly patients, oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma, clinical prognosis, nomogram predictive model